War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it looks for a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been engaged on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a junta spokesman told a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".